CHFJPY snaps to lowest close since January 3rd
Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen (CHFJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CHFJPY finished the week -0.46% lower at 111.75 after losing 37 pips (-0.33%) today on low volume. Today's close at 111.75 marks the lowest recorded closing price since January 3rd. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 112.04, the currency confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 32 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFJPY as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 50 pips (0.45%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 49 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for CHFJPY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
CHF/JPY closed below the 50-day moving average at 112.15 for the first time since November 22, 2019. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on November 22, 2019, CHFJPY actually gained 0.40% on the following trading day.
While the pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 110.92, downside momentum could accelerate should the forex pair break out to new lows for the year.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CHF/JPY. Out of 83 times, CHFJPY closed higher 57.83% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.22% with an average market move of 0.33%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more