CHFJPY breaks back below 100-day moving average
Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen (CHFJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CHFJPY ended Tuesday at 111.14 losing 44 pips (-0.39%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 111.50, the pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 41 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFJPY as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been 56 pips (0.5%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 57 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CHFJPY.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on April 8th, CHFJPY actually lost -0.43% on the following trading day.
CHF/JPY closed back below the 100-day moving average at 111.31.
The forex pair shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 110.59 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's high at 112.19, upside momentum could accelerate should the FX pair be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CHF/JPY. Out of 66 times, CHFJPY closed higher 59.09% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.09% with an average market move of 0.61%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.4% and EURUSD closing -0.2% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.38% higher and AUDUSD gaining 0.03%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been TRYJPY surging 0.57% and CADCHF closing 0.52% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURTRY tanking -0.82% and USDTRY closing -0.63% lower. Read more