CHFHKD breaks back above 200-day moving average
Swiss Franc/Hong Kong Dollar (CHFHKD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, CHFHKD finished Thursday at 8.0483 surging 1153 pips (1.45%). This is the biggest single-day gain in over four years. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day gain on March 9th, CHFHKD actually lost -1.62% on the following trading day. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Wednesday's high at 7.9467, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 1254 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFHKD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 1441 pips (1.82%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 1194 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for CHFHKD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the White Candle which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
The forex pair managed to close back above the 200-day moving average at 7.9582 for the first time since March 18th. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 8.0667 (R1), the pair closed below it after spiking up to 8.0721 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the 14 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for CHF/HKD. Out of 67 times, CHFHKD closed higher 56.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.21% with an average market move of 0.19%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more