CHFHKD breaks below 200-day moving average for the first time since November 29, 2019
Swiss Franc/Hong Kong Dollar (CHFHKD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, CHFHKD finished the week -0.45% lower at 7.9086 after losing 214 pips (-0.27%) today on low volume. Today's close at 7.9086 marks the lowest recorded closing price since December 6, 2019. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 7.9283, the pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 210 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFHKD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 301 pips (0.38%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 360 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CHFHKD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 7.8940 (S1). The forex pair closed below the 200-day moving average at 7.9248 for the first time since November 29, 2019. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on November 21, 2019, CHFHKD lost -0.36% on the following trading day.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since February 7th, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 7.9895 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for CHF/HKD. Out of 62 times, CHFHKD closed lower 54.84% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.61% with an average market move of -0.27%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more