CHFEUR rockets 0.5% closing 47 pips higher
Swiss Franc/Euro (CHFEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CHFEUR finished the month 0.32% higher at 0.9398 after surging 47 pips (0.5%) today. This is the biggest single-day gain in over two weeks. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFEUR as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 59 pips (0.63%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 57 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for CHFEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.9347 and 0.9409 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 0.9379 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 0.9423 (R1). The pair was sold again around 0.9406 after having seen highs at 0.9405, 0.9409 and 0.9402 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level. The last time this happened on May 26th, CHFEUR lost -0.50% on the following trading day.
The FX pair shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.9409 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to previous low" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for CHF/EUR. Out of 778 times, CHFEUR closed higher 47.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.27% with an average market move of 0.20%.