CHFCAD closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Swiss Franc/Canadian Dollar (CHFCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CHFCAD finished Wednesday at 1.4491 losing 29 pips (-0.2%). Trading 34 pips higher after the open, the forex pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Tuesday's low at 1.4493, the pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 38 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFCAD as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 97 pips (0.67%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 94 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CHFCAD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on August 18th, CHFCAD lost -0.84% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 1.4455 earlier during the day, the currency bounced off the key technical support level at 1.4478 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. The FX pair closed back below the 50-day moving average at 1.4495 for the first time since September 9th.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for CHF/CAD. Out of 548 times, CHFCAD closed higher 56.93% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.30% with an average market move of 0.51%.