CHFCAD breaks back below 50-day moving average
Swiss Franc/Canadian Dollar (CHFCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, CHFCAD finished the month unchanged at 1.4331 after losing 31 pips (-0.22%) today on low volume. Trading 67 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on June 25th, CHFCAD actually gained 0.40% on the following trading day. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFCAD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 95 pips (0.66%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 126 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CHFCAD.
The FX pair closed back below the 50-day moving average at 1.4336 for the first time since June 23rd.
CHF/CAD shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.4249 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to June's high at 1.4480, upside momentum could accelerate should the forex pair mark new highs for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CHF/CAD. Out of 110 times, CHFCAD closed higher 51.82% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.55% with an average market move of 0.36%.