CHFAUD stuck within tight trading range
Swiss Franc/Australian Dollar (CHFAUD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CHFAUD finished Thursday at 1.7123 losing 47 pips (-0.27%). Trading 288 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, CHFAUD lost -1.67% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CHFAUD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 414 pips (2.41%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 502 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for CHFAUD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.6810 and 1.7473 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 1.7044 earlier during the day, CHF/AUD bounced off the key technical support level at 1.7074 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.6810 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for CHF/AUD. Out of 430 times, CHFAUD closed higher 51.40% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.53% with an average market move of 0.43%.