CADUSD pushes through key technical resistance level
Canadian Dollar/US Dollar (CADUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CADUSD ended the week 0.41% higher at 0.7546 after gaining 9 pips (0.12%) today on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CADUSD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 19 pips (0.25%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 27 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CADUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 0.7541 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. The FX pair ran into sellers again today around 0.7555 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 0.7553 in the previous session and at 0.7555 two days ago. The last time this happened on February 6th, CADUSD lost -0.17% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.7555 where further buy stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to February's high at 0.7557, upside momentum could speed up should CAD/USD mark new highs for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for CAD/USD. Out of 694 times, CADUSD closed lower 52.88% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.89% with an average market move of -0.09%.