CADCHF unable to break through key resistance level
Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc (CADCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 18, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CADCHF finished the week 0.09% higher at 0.6903 after gaining 2 pips (0.03%) today. Trading up to 11 pips lower after the open, the currency managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CADCHF as at Sep 18, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 22 pips (0.32%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 43 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CADCHF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.6872 and 0.6918 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bearish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji. The last time a Bearish Hikkake Pattern showed up on August 5th, CADCHF lost -0.16% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.6907 (R1), the pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.6913 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. After having been unable to move above 0.6911 in the previous session, CAD/CHF ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 0.6913.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.6918 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.6872 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for CAD/CHF. Out of 539 times, CADCHF closed lower 56.22% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.59% with an average market move of -0.38%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.42% and AUDUSD closing -0.29% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.34% higher and USDCAD gaining 0.3%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDMXN surging 1.3% and USDZAR closing 1.05% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -1.23% and GBPJPY closing -0.59% lower. Read more