CADCHF breaks back above 50-day moving average
Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc (CADCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CADCHF finished Wednesday at 0.6901 gaining 14 pips (0.2%). Trading up to 16 pips lower after the open, the FX pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Tuesday's high at 0.6900, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 18 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CADCHF as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 46 pips (0.67%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 45 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CADCHF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.6872 and 0.6918 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on August 18th, CADCHF gained 0.84% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
The market managed to close back above the 50-day moving average at 0.6899 for the first time since September 9th. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.6907 (R1), CAD/CHF closed below it after spiking up to 0.6918 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for CAD/CHF. Out of 537 times, CADCHF closed lower 56.42% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.61% with an average market move of -0.38%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and NZDUSD closing 0.27% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more