CADCHF unable to break through key resistance level
Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc (CADCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, CADCHF finished the week 0.03% higher at 0.7474 after gaining 5 pips (0.07%) today on high volume. Trading up to 31 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CADCHF as at Dec 13, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 55 pips (0.74%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 43 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CADCHF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.7431 and 0.7493 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on November 21st, CADCHF gained 0.31% on the following trading day. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish High-Wave Candle and the Bullish Spinning Top which are both known as bullish patterns.
The forex pair managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 0.7474 for the first time since December 5th. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.7485 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 0.7493 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 0.7444 in the prior session, CAD/CHF found buyers again around the same price level today at 0.7438.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.7517 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.7431 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to December's high at 0.7538, upside momentum might speed up should the FX pair mark new highs for the month. As prices are trading close to December's low at 0.7410, downside momentum could accelerate should the currency mark new lows for the month.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for CAD/CHF. Out of 553 times, CADCHF closed lower 55.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.33% with an average market move of -0.34%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are AUDUSD losing -0.49% and USDCAD closing -0.12% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been GBPUSD closing 1.2% higher and USDJPY gaining 0.04%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPAUD surging 1.63% and GBPZAR closing 1.37% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURGBP tanking -1.3% and EURNOK closing -0.64% lower. Read more