CADAUD closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
Canadian Dollar/Australian Dollar (CADAUD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, CADAUD ended the month -2.08% lower at 1.0671 after edging higher 10 pips (0.09%) today on low volume. Trading up to 30 pips lower after the open, the forex pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CADAUD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 53 pips (0.5%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 99 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CADAUD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.0613 and 1.0714 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
CAD/AUD was bought again around 1.0632 after having seen lows at 1.0630, 1.0634 and 1.0636 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level. The last time this happened on June 11th, CADAUD gained 0.13% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 1.0785 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 1.0630 where further sell stops could get activated. Further buying might move prices higher should the market test May's nearby high at 1.1101. As prices are trading close to June's low at 1.0588, downside momentum could accelerate should the currency mark new lows for the month.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to prior three Lows" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for CAD/AUD. Out of 57 times, CADAUD closed lower 59.65% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 70.18% with an average market move of -0.62%.