AUDUSD runs into sellers again around 0.7345
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, AUDUSD ended Wednesday at 0.7306 gaining 4 pips (0.05%) on high volume. Trading up to 24 pips lower after the open, AUD/USD managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDUSD as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 66 pips (0.9%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 69 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AUDUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.7248 and 0.7345 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Five candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Gravestone Doji and the Northern Doji which are both known as bearish patterns and three neutral patterns, the Doji, the Long-Legged Doji and the Rickshaw-Man. The last time a Gravestone Doji showed up on September 1st, AUDUSD lost -0.46% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.7309 (R1), the FX pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.7345 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. After having been unable to move above 0.7343 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 0.7345.
Although the currency is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 0.7414, upside momentum could accelerate should the pair be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Rickshaw-Man" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for AUD/USD. Out of 25 times, AUDUSD closed lower 64.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.00% with an average market move of -0.21%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are GBPUSD surging 0.61% and NZDUSD gaining 0.27%. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more