AUDUSD closes within prior day's range
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AUDUSD finished the month 3.48% higher at 0.7143 after losing 52 pips (-0.72%) today on high volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDUSD as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 94 pips (1.31%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 65 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AUDUSD.
Despite a strong opening the Aussie closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on July 23rd, AUDUSD actually gained 0.11% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.7121 (S1).
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.7121 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "52 Week High" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for AUD/USD. Out of 53 times, AUDUSD closed higher 54.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.83% with an average market move of 0.13%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -1.04% and EURUSD closing -0.58% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 1.12% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.48%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.87% and GBPZAR closing 1.79% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDCAD tanking -1.15% and NZDHKD closing -1.05% lower. Read more