AUDUSD enters Golden Cross for the first time since April 6, 2018
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, AUDUSD finished the month 3.51% higher at 0.6903 after gaining 36 pips (0.52%) today on low volume. Trading up to 33 pips lower after the open, the Aussie managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Monday's high at 0.6891, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 21 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDUSD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 79 pips (1.15%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 100 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for AUDUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.6833 and 0.6962 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 0.6895 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After spiking up to 0.6912 during the day, the pair found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 0.6907. The last time this happened on March 31st, AUDUSD lost -1.03% on the following trading day. The FX pair found buyers again today around 0.6833 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 0.6841 in the prior session and at 0.6841 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term. With its 50-day moving average crossing above its 200-day moving average, the forex pair has entered a so-called "Golden Cross" for the first time since April 6, 2018. Showing increasing upward momentum in the short and medium-term the "Golden Cross" is known to indicate a potential bull market on the horizon.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.6811 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 0.7064, upside momentum could speed up should the currency be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the 13 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Golden Cross" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for AUD/USD. Out of 8 times, AUDUSD closed higher 62.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.50% with an average market move of 0.50%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are GBPUSD surging 0.82% and NZDUSD gaining 0.53%. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more