AUDUSD pushes through key technical resistance level
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, AUDUSD ended Thursday at 0.6063 gaining 104 pips (1.75%). Trading up to 88 pips lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, AUDUSD gained 2.04% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDUSD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 217 pips (3.64%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 192 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for AUDUSD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 0.5986 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After having been unable to move above 0.6074 in the previous session, the currency ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 0.6088.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for AUD/USD. Out of 383 times, AUDUSD closed lower 54.31% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.52% with an average market move of -0.31%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are GBPUSD surging 2.72% and NZDUSD gaining 1.88%. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more