AUDUSD breaks below Thursday's low
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 24, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AUDUSD finished the week -0.7% lower at 0.6825 after losing 23 pips (-0.34%) today. Today's close at 0.6825 marks the lowest recorded closing price since December 10, 2019. Closing below Thursday's low at 0.6830, the currency confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 12 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDUSD as at Jan 24, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 39 pips (0.57%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 41 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AUDUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.6809 (S1). The market closed below the 100-day moving average at 0.6841 for the first time since December 2, 2019. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on November 12, 2019, AUDUSD lost -0.04% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Further selling might move prices lower should the market test December's close-by low at 0.6762.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AUD/USD. Out of 84 times, AUDUSD closed higher 52.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after seven trading days, showing a win rate of 55.95% with an average market move of 0.14%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.41% and EURUSD closing -0.28% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.23% higher and USDCAD gaining 0.14%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDNOK surging 0.57% and USDPLN closing 0.53% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPJPY tanking -0.6% and AUDJPY closing -0.53% lower. Read more