AUDUSD fails to close above 100-day moving average
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 02, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AUDUSD ended Monday at 0.6819 surging 57 pips (0.84%). This is the biggest single-day gain in over a month. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day gain on October 17th, AUDUSD gained 0.48% on the following trading day. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Friday's high at 0.6779, the currency confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 47 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDUSD as at Dec 02, 2019):
Monday's trading range has been 64 pips (0.95%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 38 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AUDUSD.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The forex pair managed to close back above the 50-day moving average at 0.6807 for the first time since November 19th. After spiking up to 0.6826 during the day, the Aussie found resistance at the 100-day moving average at 0.6820.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.6835 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the 14 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AUD/USD. Out of 82 times, AUDUSD closed higher 62.20% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 56.10% with an average market move of 0.02%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are NZDUSD gaining 1.25% and EURUSD closing 0.54% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -0.88% lower and USDJPY losing -0.47%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been NZDCAD surging 1.45% and NZDHKD closing 1.24% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDHUF tanking -1.33% and USDPLN closing -1.19% lower. Read more