AUDUSD breaks above 50-day moving average for the first time since September 17th
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, AUDUSD ended the week 0.34% higher at 0.6793 after gaining 32 pips (0.47%) today on high volume. Closing above Thursday's high at 0.6775, AUD/USD confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 35 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDUSD as at Oct 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 56 pips (0.83%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 45 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AUDUSD.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The market managed to close above the 50-day moving average at 0.6778 for the first time since September 17th. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.6806 (R1), the Ozzie closed below it after spiking up to 0.6810 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on Wednesday, AUDUSD actually gained 0.55% on the following trading day.
Although the FX pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed above last periods high" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for AUD/USD. Out of 632 times, AUDUSD closed lower 53.64% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.53% with an average market move of -0.17%.
With five out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 1.67% and USDJPY closing 0.44% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been USDCAD closing -0.67% lower. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been ZARJPY surging 2.23% and GBPJPY closing 2.1% higher. The worst performers of the day have been CHFZAR tanking -1.88% and USDZAR closing -1.87% lower. Read more