AUDUSD declines to lowest close since January 3rd
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, AUDUSD ended Monday at 0.7062 losing 26 pips (-0.37%). Today's close at 0.7062 marks the lowest recorded closing price since January 3rd. Trading 19 pips higher after the open, the FX pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDUSD as at Feb 11, 2019):
Monday's trading range has been 51 pips (0.72%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 61 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly lower than usual for AUDUSD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on January 24th, AUDUSD actually gained 1.25% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 0.7078 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 0.7061 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 0.7057.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AUD/USD. Out of 518 times, AUDUSD closed higher 57.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.86% with an average market move of 0.26%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are USDJPY surging 0.57% and USDCHF gaining 0.37%. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -0.63% lower and EURUSD losing -0.41%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.38% and USDMXN closing 1.17% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.74% and GBPHKD closing -0.63% lower. Read more