AUDNZD finds buyers around 1.0680 for the forth day in a row
Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar (AUDNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, AUDNZD finished the month -0.48% lower at 1.0695 after edging higher 1 pip (0.01%) today on low volume. Trading up to 14 pips lower after the open, the FX pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDNZD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 39 pips (0.36%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 61 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AUDNZD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.0672 and 1.0720 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Northern Doji which is known as bearish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji. The last time a Northern Doji showed up on May 14th, AUDNZD actually gained 0.35% on the following trading day.
The currency managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 1.0691. The market closed back below the 50-day moving average at 1.0697. AUD/NZD was bought again around 1.0680 after having seen lows at 1.0672, 1.0673 and 1.0675 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.0756 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.0672 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to prior two Lows" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for AUD/NZD. Out of 190 times, AUDNZD closed lower 58.95% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.42% with an average market move of -0.16%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more