AUDJPY unable to break through key resistance level
Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUDJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 23, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, AUDJPY ended the week 0.16% higher at 74.74 after edging higher 13 pips (0.17%) today. Trading up to 28 pips lower after the open, AUD/JPY managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Thursday's high at 74.69, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 24 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDJPY as at Oct 23, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 56 pips (0.75%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 67 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AUDJPY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 74.19 and 74.95 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish High-Wave Candle and the Bullish Spinning Top which are both known as bullish patterns.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 74.93 (R1), the forex pair closed below it after spiking up to 74.93 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on October 6th, AUDJPY actually gained 0.83% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 74.95 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 74.19 where further sell stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test September's nearby low at 73.97.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for AUD/JPY. Out of 166 times, AUDJPY closed higher 54.22% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.42% with an average market move of 0.23%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.33% and USDCHF closing -0.31% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been EURUSD closing 0.36% higher and AUDUSD gaining 0.31%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been EURGBP surging 0.71% and EURSGD closing 0.47% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPPLN tanking -0.81% and GBPCHF closing -0.65% lower. Read more