AUDJPY closes lower for the 4th day in a row
Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUDJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 24, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, AUDJPY ended the week -1.49% lower at 74.58 after losing 40 pips (-0.53%) today. Closing below Thursday's low at 74.65, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 22 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDJPY as at Jan 24, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 74 pips (0.99%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 61 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for AUDJPY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 74.29 (S1). The pair closed below the 200-day moving average at 74.69 for the first time since January 8th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on January 7th, AUDJPY actually gained 0.55% on the following trading day.
Though the forex pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 73.76, downside momentum could speed up should the FX pair break out to new lows for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AUD/JPY. Out of 58 times, AUDJPY closed higher 58.62% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 58.62% with an average market move of 0.03%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.41% and AUDUSD closing -0.34% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.23% higher and USDCAD gaining 0.14%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDNOK surging 0.57% and USDPLN closing 0.53% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPJPY tanking -0.6% and EURJPY closing -0.5% lower. Read more