AUDHKD closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
Australian Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar (AUDHKD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, AUDHKD ended the month 3.5% higher at 5.3502 after gaining 276 pips (0.52%) today on low volume. Trading up to 259 pips lower after the open, the forex pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Monday's high at 5.3407, the pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 165 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDHKD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 616 pips (1.16%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 777 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for AUDHKD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 5.2956 and 5.3956 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 5.3443 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After spiking up to 5.3572 during the day, AUD/HKD found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 5.3533. The last time this happened on March 31st, AUDHKD lost -1.00% on the following trading day. The market found buyers again today around 5.2956 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 5.3018 in the prior session and at 5.3018 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 5.2782 where further sell stops could get activated. With prices trading close to this year's high at 5.4750, upside momentum might speed up should the currency be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Outside Bar" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for AUD/HKD. Out of 152 times, AUDHKD closed higher 55.26% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 54.61% with an average market move of 0.06%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more