AUDHKD closes within previous day's range
Australian Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar (AUDHKD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AUDHKD finished the month -6.29% lower at 4.7551 after losing 305 pips (-0.64%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDHKD as at Mar 31, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 1085 pips (2.27%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 1486 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for AUDHKD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 4.6690 and 4.8182 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on March 9th, AUDHKD lost -1.30% on the following trading day. In spite of a strong opening the FX pair closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After spiking up to 4.8182 during the day, the market found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 4.7980.
Though AUD/HKD is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AUD/HKD. Out of 145 times, AUDHKD closed higher 51.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after six trading days, showing a win rate of 55.86% with an average market move of 0.14%.
With six out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -0.9% and USDCAD closing -0.73% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been USDCHF closing 0.27% higher. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been CADCHF surging 1.0% and EURNZD closing 0.74% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDCAD tanking -1.61% and EURNOK closing -1.46% lower. Read more