AUDHKD closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Australian Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar (AUDHKD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, AUDHKD ended Thursday at 4.7002 gaining 804 pips (1.74%). Trading up to 674 pips lower after the open, the forex pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, AUDHKD gained 1.99% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDHKD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 1669 pips (3.61%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 1479 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for AUDHKD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 4.6441 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After having been unable to move above 4.7100 in the previous session, the FX pair ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 4.7193.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for AUD/HKD. Out of 393 times, AUDHKD closed lower 53.44% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.91% with an average market move of -0.25%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more