AUDGBP closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Australian Dollar/British Pound (AUDGBP) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AUDGBP finished the month 3.07% higher at 0.5567 after losing 16 pips (-0.29%) today on low volume. Trading 15 pips higher after the open, the FX pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on June 24th, AUDGBP actually gained 0.29% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDGBP as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 32 pips (0.57%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 55 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AUDGBP.
After moving higher in the previous session, the currency closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.5514.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.5515 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for AUD/GBP. Out of 91 times, AUDGBP closed lower 54.95% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.75% with an average market move of -0.05%.