AUDEUR dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
Australian Dollar/Euro (AUDEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AUDEUR ended the month 2.37% higher at 0.6146 after gaining 38 pips (0.62%) today on low volume. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Monday's high at 0.6125, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 24 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDEUR as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 53 pips (0.87%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 66 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AUDEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.6081 and 0.6149 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In spite of a weak opening AUD/EUR managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The pair managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 0.6130. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on June 25th, AUDEUR actually lost -0.31% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 0.6150 (R1).
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.6081 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 0.6261, upside momentum might accelerate should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to June's high at 0.6237, upside momentum could speed up should the currency mark new highs for the month.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Engulfing Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for AUD/EUR. Out of 121 times, AUDEUR closed lower 58.68% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 47.93% with an average market move of 0.06%.