AUDCHF closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Australian Dollar/Swiss Franc (AUDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AUDCHF ended the week 1.09% higher at 0.6595 after gaining 13 pips (0.2%) today on low volume. Today's close at 0.6595 marks the highest recorded closing price since January 24th. Trading up to 10 pips lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDCHF as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 29 pips (0.44%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 54 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AUDCHF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.6547 and 0.6601 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns and one bearish pattern, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 0.6591 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. The last time this happened on February 4th, AUDCHF gained 0.55% on the following trading day. The currency ran into sellers again today around 0.6599 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 0.6601 in the prior session and at 0.6593 two days ago.
Although the FX pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.6601 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Resistance R1" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for AUD/CHF. Out of 375 times, AUDCHF closed lower 57.07% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.93% with an average market move of -0.40%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more