AUDCAD finds buyers around 0.9595 for the forth day in a row
Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar (AUDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
AUDCAD finished Wednesday at 0.9627 edging lower 2 pips (-0.02%). Trading 36 pips higher after the open, the FX pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDCAD as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 73 pips (0.76%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 0 pip. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AUDCAD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.9558 and 0.9668 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on August 20th, AUDCAD lost -0.51% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.9545 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.9641 (R1), AUD/CAD closed below it after spiking up to 0.9668 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. The pair was bought again around 0.9595 after having seen lows at 0.9582, 0.9573 and 0.9566 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.9487 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.0418, downside momentum might speed up should the forex pair break out to new lows for the year. Trading close to July's high at 0.9697 we could see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get activated. Trading close to July's low at 0.9348 we might see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get triggered.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous three Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AUD/CAD. Out of 129 times, AUDCAD closed higher 56.59% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.57% with an average market move of 0.51%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and NZDUSD closing 0.27% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more