AUDCAD closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar (AUDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, AUDCAD finished the month 2.13% higher at 0.9371 after edging lower 9 pips (-0.1%) today on low volume. Trading 27 pips higher after the open, the currency was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDCAD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 47 pips (0.5%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 81 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for AUDCAD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.9334 and 0.9422 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.8615 (S1). The market was bought again around 0.9359 after having seen lows at 0.9364, 0.9368 and 0.9349 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.9407 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.9272 where further sell stops could get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.0418, downside momentum might accelerate should the FX pair break out to new lows for the year. As prices are trading close to June's high at 0.9445, upside momentum could speed up should the forex pair mark new highs for the month. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test May's nearby low at 0.9008.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior three Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AUD/CAD. Out of 76 times, AUDCAD closed higher 59.21% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.21% with an average market move of 0.60%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more