AUDCAD closes higher for the 3rd day in a row
Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar (AUDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 01, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, AUDCAD finished Monday at 0.9226 surging 50 pips (0.54%) on high volume. Today's close at 0.9226 marks the highest recorded closing price since July 22, 2019. Closing above Friday's high at 0.9196, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 70 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDCAD as at Jun 01, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been 97 pips (1.06%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 65 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for AUDCAD.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.8954 (S1). AUD/CAD was bought again around 0.9169 after having seen lows at 0.9107, 0.9079 and 0.9063 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level. The last time this happened on May 29th, AUDCAD gained 0.54% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since May 21st, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices might head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.9118 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.9063 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.0418, downside momentum could speed up should the forex pair break out to new lows for the year. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test May's nearby low at 0.9008.
Among the 15 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior three Highs" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AUD/CAD. Out of 55 times, AUDCAD closed higher 61.82% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.55% with an average market move of 0.39%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are AUDUSD gaining 1.93% and NZDUSD closing 1.43% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -0.21%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been AUDHKD surging 1.93% and AUDCHF closing 1.9% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURAUD tanking -1.65% and USDPLN closing -1.36% lower. Read more