AUDCAD still stuck within tight trading range
Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar (AUDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, AUDCAD finished the week 1.15% higher at 0.9154 after edging lower 7 pips (-0.08%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (AUDCAD as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 32 pips (0.35%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 92233720368548048 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for AUDCAD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.9043 and 0.9184 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.8996 (S1). The pair was bought again around 0.9136 after having seen lows at 0.9127, 0.9103 and 0.9085 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.9092. The last time this happened on April 10th, AUDCAD actually gained 0.10% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.9184 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.9022 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.0418, downside momentum could speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year. As prices are trading close to May's low at 0.9008, downside momentum might accelerate should the FX pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed below the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for AUD/CAD. Out of 76 times, AUDCAD closed higher 55.26% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.47% and EURUSD closing -0.44% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCAD closing 0.33% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.08%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDCZK surging 1.09% and USDHUF closing 0.9% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -0.58% and SGDHKD closing -0.51% lower. Read more