XRT runs into sellers again around 44.28
SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
XRT ended the week 6.36% higher at 43.62 after edging higher $0.09 (0.21%) today. Trading $0.51 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XRT as at Sep 13, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.83 (1.9%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.84. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for XRT.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Shooting Star which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 43.22 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 44.29 (R1). After having been unable to move above 44.29 in the previous session, SPDR S&P ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 44.28. The last time this happened on September 4th, XRT actually gained 3.74% on the following trading day.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 44.29 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SPDR S&P. Out of 548 times, XRT closed higher 55.29% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.11% with an average market move of 0.51%.