XLY pushes through Monday's high
Consumer Discret Sel Sect SPDR ETF (XLY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, XLY finished the month 2.83% higher at 127.71 after gaining $1.61 (1.28%) today on low volume. Closing above Monday's high at 126.20, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $2.09 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XLY as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $2.68 (2.13%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.72. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for XLY.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
After spiking up to 128.29 during the day, the ETF found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 128.15. The last time this happened on March 31st, XLY lost -4.47% on the following trading day.
XLY shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 133.30, upside momentum could accelerate should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed above last periods high" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for XLY. Out of 428 times, XLY closed higher 59.81% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.08% with an average market move of 0.63%.