XLE unable to break through key resistance level
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 20, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
XLE finished Thursday at 54.79 edging lower $0.06 (-0.11%). Trading $0.41 higher after the open, the ETF was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on February 13th, XLE lost -0.53% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XLE as at Feb 20, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.75 (1.36%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.87. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for XLE.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 55.18 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 55.40 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for XLE. Out of 405 times, XLE closed lower 53.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.60% with an average market move of -0.33%.