VPL stuck within tight trading range
Vanguard FTSE Pacific (VPL) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
VPL ended the month 2.35% higher at 63.65 after losing $0.36 (-0.56%) today. Trading $0.35 higher after the open, Vanguard FTSE was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on June 4th, VPL actually gained 2.21% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VPL as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.48 (0.75%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.83. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for VPL. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 63.41 and 64.44 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 63.41 (S1). After having been unable to move above 64.06 in the previous session, the ETF ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 64.03.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 64.44 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 63.41 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to June's low at 62.30, downside momentum might accelerate should VPL mark new lows for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vanguard FTSE. Out of 161 times, VPL closed higher 54.04% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.25% with an average market move of 0.35%.