VIXY dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
ProShares Trust VIX Short-Term Futures (VIXY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, VIXY ended the month 1.68% higher at 27.76 after losing $1.52 (-5.19%) today. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 29.24, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.69 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VIXY as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $2.04 (6.91%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.42. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for VIXY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The market closed back below the 100-day moving average at 29.43 for the first time since June 23rd. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 23rd, VIXY actually gained 6.92% on the following trading day.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 27.42 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for ProShares Trust. Out of 329 times, VIXY closed lower 64.74% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.57% with an average market move of -1.96%.