VGK runs into sellers around 50.56 for the third day in a row
Vanguard FTSEEuropean (VGK) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
VGK finished the month 3.22% higher at 50.33 after edging lower $0.02 (-0.04%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VGK as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.72 (1.44%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.87. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for VGK. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 49.63 and 50.74 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on January 8th, VGK gained 0.10% on the following trading day.
The market ran into sellers again today around 50.56 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 50.45 in the prior session and at 50.54 two days ago.
Vanguard FTSEEuropean shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 49.63 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to June's low at 49.03, downside momentum could accelerate should the ETF mark new lows for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vanguard FTSEEuropean. Out of 621 times, VGK closed higher 54.75% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.49% with an average market move of 0.32%.