UVXY drops to lowest close since February 26th
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 18, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 6th day in a row, UVXY ended the week -6.68% lower at 19.41 after losing $0.04 (-0.21%) today. Today's close at 19.41 marks the lowest recorded closing price since February 26th. Trading up to $0.63 lower after the open, the ETF managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UVXY as at Sep 18, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.55 (8.08%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.31. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for UVXY.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish High-Wave Candle and the Bullish Spinning Top which are both known as bullish patterns. The last time a Bullish High-Wave Candle showed up on March 18th, UVXY actually lost -14.95% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 21.10 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "6 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for UVXY. Out of 38 times, UVXY closed lower 57.89% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 81.58% with an average market move of -7.25%.