UVXY ends the day indecisive
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UVXY ended the month -23.56% lower at 25.05 after losing $0.84 (-3.24%) today. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UVXY as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.04 (8.2%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.34. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for UVXY.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Inverted Hammer. The last time a Inverted Hammer showed up on July 15th, UVXY actually lost -2.41% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 24.60 (S1).
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 24.60 where further sell stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to July's low at 24.53, downside momentum could accelerate should the market mark new lows for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for UVXY. Out of 823 times, UVXY closed lower 60.15% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 70.72% with an average market move of -4.61%.