UVXY closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, UVXY finished the month -2.59% lower at 32.70 after losing $2.68 (-7.57%) today. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 35.30, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $3.03 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UVXY as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $3.71 (10.36%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $4.49. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for UVXY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The ETF closed back below the 20-day moving average at 34.91 for the first time since June 23rd. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 23rd, UVXY actually gained 10.32% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 32.20 where further sell stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to June's low at 27.04, downside momentum could speed up should UVXY mark new lows for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for UVXY. Out of 306 times, UVXY closed lower 64.05% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 69.61% with an average market move of -4.04%.