UVXY breaks back below 20-day moving average
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, UVXY ended the week -6.96% lower at 24.61 after tanking $2.45 (-9.05%) today on high volume. This is the biggest single-day loss in over a month. Today's close at 24.61 marks the lowest recorded closing price since September 19th.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UVXY as at Oct 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.93 (7.52%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.93. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for UVXY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 23.43 (S1). The ETF closed back below the 20-day moving average at 26.59 for the first time since September 30th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on September 30th, UVXY actually gained 6.07% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 23.02, downside momentum might accelerate should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for UVXY. Out of 599 times, UVXY closed lower 60.43% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 71.12% with an average market move of -5.05%.