USO ends the day indecisive
United States Oil Fund (USO) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, USO finished the week 3.5% higher at 10.95 after gaining $0.11 (1.01%) today ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USO as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.15 (1.37%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.21. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USO.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Hanging Man which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Hanging Man showed up on December 11, 2019, USO actually gained 0.57% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 11.04 (R1).
While the ETF is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Hanging Man" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USO. Out of 57 times, USO closed higher 63.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 73.68% with an average market move of 1.60%.