USMV closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA (USMV) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 02, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, USMV finished Thursday at 61.08 gaining $0.19 (0.31%) ahead of tomorrow's Independence Day OBS market holiday. Trading $0.35 higher after the open, the ETF was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on May 20th, USMV lost -0.67% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USMV as at Jul 02, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.68 (1.11%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.03. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USMV.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 61.66 (R1).
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for iShares Edge. Out of 412 times, USMV closed higher 56.07% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.26% with an average market move of 0.59%.