UNG fails to close above 20-day moving average
United States Natural Gas (UNG) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, UNG finished the month -9.36% lower at 10.26 after gaining $0.32 (3.22%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UNG as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.35 (3.39%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.32. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for UNG.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Hanging Man.
After spiking up to 10.38 during the day, the market found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 10.37. The last time this happened on April 16th, UNG actually gained 3.37% on the following trading day.
While the ETF is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 10.47 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for UNG. Out of 136 times, UNG closed lower 57.35% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.35% with an average market move of -1.26%.