UNG closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
United States Natural Gas (UNG) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, UNG finished Thursday at 12.80 edging lower $0.24 (-1.84%). Trading $0.24 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Wednesday's low at 12.87, the ETF confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.19 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UNG as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.47 (3.64%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.58. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for UNG.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 12.47 (S1). After having been unable to move above 13.23 in the prior session, UNG ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 13.15.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 13.27 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 12.47 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for UNG. Out of 329 times, UNG closed lower 54.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.80% with an average market move of -0.59%.