UNG finds buyers around 14.29 for the third day in a row
United States Natural Gas (UNG) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UNG ended the week -0.76% lower at 14.34 after edging higher $0.02 (0.14%) today on low volume ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UNG as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.15 (1.04%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.32. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for UNG. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 14.24 and 14.57 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 14.53 (R1). The ETF found buyers again today around 14.29 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 14.27 in the prior session and at 14.24 two days ago. The last time this happened on January 6th, UNG gained 0.18% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 14.57 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to previous low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for UNG. Out of 457 times, UNG closed lower 52.08% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.80% with an average market move of -0.82%.