UGLD closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
VS 3X GOLD (UGLD) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UGLD ended the week -2.38% lower at 191.82 after gaining $4.43 (2.36%) today on low volume ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UGLD as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.97 (1.56%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $6.52. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for UGLD.
After moving lower in the prior session, VS 3X managed to close higher but below the previous day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on April 20th, UGLD actually lost -1.95% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 189.68 (S1). After having been unable to move above 192.61 in the prior session, the ETF ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 192.77.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 197.42 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 184.50 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Harami Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for VS 3X. Out of 42 times, UGLD closed lower 78.57% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.29% with an average market move of -1.29%.